GDP to grow by 4.7 percent
after a sharp decline last year

First increase since 2017 by World Bank’s estimates

The World Bank has estimated that GDP will grow by 4.7 percent in 2025. If realized, it would be the country’s first year of growth since 2017. The growth is expected to be driven by a resurgence in tourism, rising consumption, limited inflows for reconstruction, and a favorable base effect following last year’s sharp contraction.

Real GDP shrank by 7.1 percent last year according to the World Bank’s Macro Poverty Outlook released last month — a downturn largely attributed to the conflict with Israel, which shaved an estimated eight percentage points off growth. Prior to the escalation, the World Bank had projected growth of 0.9 percent for 2024.

The World Bank estimated nominal GDP at $26 billion in 2024. The figure is believed by some economists to be grossly undervalued.

“This moment presents a critical opportunity,” according to the report. “If political will holds and reforms are implemented consistently, Lebanon could not only achieve recovery in 2025 but also build a path toward a more stable, sustainable, and inclusive economy,” it stated.