2024 GDP at $40+ billion
according to InfoPro study

Valuation far exceeds

World Bank and IMF estimates

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2024 is estimated by InfoPro at more than $40 billion, in nominal terms. It far exceeds the estimates made by international organizations.

These estimates range from $26 billion by the World Bank and $28 billion by the IMF to $32.8 billion by the Institute of International Finance (IIF). “These figures have been challenged by leaders in the Lebanese private sector and by independent analysts, who argue that the published estimates significantly underestimate the true scale of the economy,” InfoPro said in its report Mission Impossible, Estimating GDP at more than $40 Billion in 2024.

InfoPro’s estimate does not take into account several GDP components due to the lack of reliable data. These include municipal expenditures financed by direct levies by municipalities, as well as changes in the consumption of jewelry, precious stones, and precious metals such as gold. Data about imports and exports of jewelry, precious stones, and precious metals are largely unreliable. Another factor not considered is at least a ten percent cash economy activity, which is nearly impossible to track. InfoPro noted that if all these factors were included, they would add another $5 billion to its GDP estimate.

InfoPro used the Expenditure Approach in its GDP calculation, since its data components are the only ones that are readily available or possible to estimate. It reviewed various data sources, conducted field research, and submitted its work for peer review. The Central Administration of Statistics (CAS) uses both the Expenditure Approach and the Value-Added Approach. A third method, the Income Approach, has not been applied by CAS because of lack of data.

“The aim is not to replace a more rigorous and much-needed official calculation, typically conducted by the State, but rather to demonstrate that current GDP estimates by international organizations require a second look, based on a more rigorous methodology,” InfoPro said.