Real growth GDP:
five percent in 2025

InfoPro says it is due to increased production not just inflation

InfoPro estimates that Lebanon’s GDP grew by 5.1 percent in real terms in 2025, reaching a nominal value of $46.3 billion.

Its pre-war outlook for 2026, based on a projected real growth rate of four percent by the World Bank, had forecast nominal GDP at around $52 billion, approaching pre-crisis levels. Early estimates for 2026 predict a double-digit economic contraction as a result of the war.

These figures do not capture several components of economic activity due to the lack of reliable data. These include municipal spending funded through direct levies, shifts in the consumption of jewelry, precious stones, and precious metals such as gold, as well as an estimated cash economy accounting for at least 10 percent of total activity. Combined, these segments could add as much as $5 billion to the overall GDP.

InfoPro has also revised its estimate for the 2024 nominal GDP to $38.7 billion, based on updated data from the Ministry of Finance.

InfoPro’s 2025 estimate stands above those of other institutions, which range widely. The World Bank, in its Lebanon Economic Monitor (Winter 2025), placed GDP at $30.6 billion, while the Ministry of Finance’s draft 2026 budget estimated it at $32.8 billion. The Institute of International Finance (IIF) projected $38.3 billion in a February 2025 research note. Bank Audi and S&P Global estimated GDP at $43 billion and $43.4 billion respectively in 2025 and early 2026 reports.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has refrained from publishing GDP estimates for Lebanon for 2025–2030, citing “an unusually high degree of uncertainty.”

In recent years, GDP estimates by international organizations have often understated the size of Lebanon’s economy. More recent figures from the Central Administration of Statistics, the country’s official statistical agency, have aligned more closely with InfoPro’s estimates, prompting several institutions to revise their earlier projections upward.