InfoPro business survey forecast
mild 2nd semester sales increase

Harsh first semester saw 45 percent decrease in business

A majority of businesses expect conditions to improve during the second half of 2026 if the ceasefire holds, although most anticipate only a gradual recovery after a difficult first six months of the year, according to the latest War Impact and Business Forecast survey by InfoPro. The survey covering 250 businesses was conducted on July 2 to 10, primarily in Beirut and Mount Lebanon. Areas directly devastated by the war were excluded.

The survey found that half the companies expect sales to increase during the July to December period, while 45 percent expect sales to remain stable. Only four percent foresee a further decline. Service companies are the most optimistic, followed by trade businesses and manufacturers. Manufacturing firms remain the most cautious with 62 percent expecting business activity to remain flat despite the ceasefire.

The outlook follows a severe deterioration in business conditions during the first half of the year. Seven out of ten companies reported lower revenues than in the same period of 2025, with average losses reaching 45 percent among affected firms. Manufacturers recorded the broadest revenue decline.
The survey shows that businesses were affected more by weakened demand and operational disruption than by direct physical damage. Nearly two thirds of companies are operating below their pre-war level. Companies said that the impact of the current conflict has been more intense than the 2024 war.

Lower demand emerged as the biggest business challenge, cited by 72 percent of respondents. Cost increases and cash flow or financing problems were also flagged as major issues. Staff absences, transport disruptions, shortages of raw materials and customs delays also weighed heavily on operations. In response, 60 percent of businesses increased prices, more than half reduced production or service delivery, and many changed transport routes, reduced working hours or relied on existing inventories to continue operating.

The labor market impact was relatively contained. Hiring freezes were reported by 40 percent of companies and 25 percent reduced working hours, while only nine percent resorted to layoffs or furloughs. Around one third of businesses reported no significant workforce changes.