Expatriates’ remittances up or down?

Different methodologies lead to confusion

Two different estimates for expatriate remittances to Lebanon in 2024 underscore persistent gaps in data coverage and methodology at a time when inflows are channeled, in the large part, outside the formal banking system.

According to the Central Bank of (BDL), inflows of expatriates’ remittances reached an estimated $6.8 billion in 2024, representing a six percent increase from the previous year. The figures were published in the ‘Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Report – 2024’, released by BDL last May.

BDL attributed the increase primarily to the growing use of cash and money transfer services, reflecting stronger reliance on informal and semi-formal channels amid continued weaknesses in resident banks. Cash inflows rose by five percent during the year, while inflows through money transfer companies expanded by 11 percent. By contrast, bank transfers remained marginal, as many expatriates continued to avoid fees, delays, and withdrawal restrictions associated with the formal banking system.

On the debit side, BDL reported that remittance outflows remained broadly stable at $1.7 billion. Cash transactions accounted for the bulk of outward flows, while transfers through banks nearly disappeared in 2024, further highlighting the diminished role of the traditional banking channel in cross border personal transfers.

The World Bank, however, reported a significantly lower figure. In its latest estimates, first reported by Byblos Bank's 'Lebanon this Week' newsletter, the World Bank put expatriate remittances to Lebanon at $5.8 billion in 2024, down 13.4 percent from $6.7 billion in 2023. Based on official GDP figures of $37.9 billion, the World Bank estimate places remittances at around 15 percent of GDP in 2024.

The discrepancy between the two estimates appears to stem largely from differences in coverage and estimation methods. BDL’s figures draw heavily on domestic balance of payments data and attempt to capture cash and money transfer inflows that increasingly bypass the banking sector. The World Bank relies on a global model that combines official data, household surveys, and bilateral migration statistics, which may not fully reflect the scale of cash based transfers entering the country outside formal reporting channels.